Clarity, trusted information, tangible rewards key to emissions progress

New research funded by the Agricultural Emissions Centre shows reducing emissions from pastoral farming is possible but will require on-farm innovation and strong support to remain economically viable.

The Future Farm Systems programme, led by Lee Matheson of Perrin Ag and Erica van Reenen of AgFirst, examined how New Zealand’s pastoral sector could transition to lower-emissions systems through management change, land-use diversification, and collaboration.

The three-year programme explored what reductions are already happening on farms, the barriers that remain, and how rural communities may adapt as the sector evolves.

The programme also found that there is a limit to how far emissions can be reduced without significantly affecting profitability, and that this threshold varies by farm.

Farmers are more likely to act when clear policy or market signals exist and when they can collaborate with others.

Van Reenen says farmers want to contribute to solutions but need clarity, trusted information, and tangible rewards for leadership.

She notes that working through community groups or collectives can build confidence, spread risk, and accelerate change or at least the appetite for it.

Matheson says change is underway but is complex, incremental, and closely linked to the people and capability within each farm business.

He notes that there is no single solution and that success rests on strong fundamentals such as profitability, people, and confidence.

Case-study farms in the research achieved biological-emissions reductions of between two and 16 per cent, largely through improvements in efficiency, adjustments to stocking rates, and better land management.

The research suggests while technology will play a growing role, system change and collaboration are currently the most realistic pathways for near-term progress.

Despite promising results, the study highlights several ongoing challenges including policy uncertainty, market volatility, and limited farmer confidence in unproven mitigation technologies.

Farmers are more likely to act when clear policy or market signals exist and when they can collaborate with others.

Future-scenario testing with rural communities in Northland and Southland showed lower-emissions systems could reshape regional economies in ways that also raise challenges around labour, water, energy, biosecurity, and infrastructure.

These findings underline the need for coordinated planning between government, industry, and communities.

Although NZ has recently scaled back its methane-reduction target to 14–24 percent by 2050, the research indicates that the transition will still involve fewer ruminants, new supply chains, and significant capital investment across the primary sector.

Analysis of alternative land uses such as milling wheat, hemp, tōtara, and blueberries found potential but also financial and infrastructure constraints.

The study concludes without coordinated investment and scale, most alternative land uses can only make modest contributions to national emissions goals.

The research emphasises that a sustainable transition will require integrated policy, shared investment, and continued science-based innovation.

Matheson says NZ’s standard of living depends on producing food and fibre from natural resources, and that the challenge is not to stop farming but to evolve farming systems quickly to meet environmental and economic expectations.